It’s 7am here in the City of Angels, and I am enjoying that famous LA sunrise. You know, that one that nips over the parking garages, picking up the glittering reds of the car brake lights and the saturated grays of the smog as it rises only to bow in servitude to the neon studio signs? I’m here because our girl Hilary is the musical guest on The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien tonight, and in a couple hours I’m off to play Rock Band 2 in the green room (our schedule says it’s there) and ask Rob Lowe why Sam left The West Wing.
The Tonight Show has gotten more media and public attention this week than any other television show has gotten in months. I’d like to credit this to Hilary Hahn being the musical guest, but I suspect it’s because of this:
Outrage toward the network and its decision to put not-ready-for-primetime host Jay Leno back to his old Tonight Show 11:35 p.m. timeslot and to bump Conan O’Brien’s Tonight Show
to just after midnight – has officially gone viral. Tens of thousands
of fans have taken to the Internet to show their support for the
spurned O’Brien, who spoke out publicly against NBC’s decision this week. (via)
Still could be Hilary, though.
I was going to write this post about what sells albums. I covered for a publicist at a record label two falls ago, and it was shocking to me how little television appearances help classical album sales. With no concrete (or abstract, for that matter) data, I think this is for three reasons. I would do this as a Top Ten list, but Dave doesn’t get my support today.
First, most classical labels can’t afford to buy TV advertisements during these shows. When a movie star is on promoting a movie, that movie is heavily advertised during the program. Even when a movie gets panned in the New York Times, that movie has a full-page ad (at what, $40K or some such number?) in the Arts + Leisure section. Publicity and marketing wouldn’t exist as separate entities if people didn’t need to be hit over the head with these things in multiple presentations and locations. The second reason I don’t think television appearances sell albums is that people aren’t necessarily by their computers during the shows, and they’re definitely not at a store that sells records during the shows. These days, the things I buy are what I can click and purchase, or what I actually see in the store. BlissWorld.com is having a sale on body butter? Thanks, e mail blast, I will buy that. You are familiar with my credit card information. Cherry Chapstick is right there as I’m checking out at Duane Reade? Sure, I have 17 half-used cherry Chapsticks at home, but I don’t have them Right Now. Thanks, (literal) product placement, I will buy that. The third reason for a lack of sales, I think, is that TV is not an uber-targeted audience. An interview on Violinist.com or a similarly niche outlet has a readership who we already know is interested in what we’re selling. Of course I’m beyond thrilled that Hilary is on the show tonight. Appearances like this are fantastic for that ever-elusive “profile-building,” which I define as “people name-dropping you at cocktail parties.” Will it sell her new album, though? Well, I’ll let you know next week.
Right, so I was going to write about what sells albums, but now I’m more interested in what spikes television ratings. For the past couple days, friends and colleagues have been e mailing me articles about The Tonight Show’s viewership. And I’m going to choose to take the rampant accusations that Jeff Zucker and I are in cahoots to make Hilary more famous as a compliment. From the Wall Street Journal today:
As NBC and Conan O’Brien engage in a game of brinkmanship over the
future of “The Tonight Show,” Mr. O’Brien’s audience has surged,
especially among younger people.About 42% more viewers
between the ages of 18 and 49 watched the “The Tonight Show with Conan
O’Brien” Tuesday compared to a day earlier, according to preliminary
Nielsen data provided by NBC.
On Twitter this morning, in response to this Tweet from New York Times’ ArtsBeat editor Dave Itzkoff (@Ditzkoff): “On what planet? Predictions that NBC’s late-night morass could ultimately boost ratings and sell more ads: http://bit.ly/6o4r7x,” @MarkAShanhan wrote, “If only newspaper morass would have same effect on NYTimes and its properties.”
When do PR disasters spell, well, disaster and when do they actually help sales and boost ratings? @MarkAShanhan is right: amidst rumors that newspapers and magazines are shutting down around us, did anyone subscribe to more newspapers and magazines? When told that record stores were closing, did we all wander into a Virgin Megastore out of morbid curiosity and spend? And maybe classical music could be saved if only poorly-sold concerts started with self-deprecating monologues.
Update, 1/15: Right, so, kindly disregard the blog post above. (((awk-ward)))
From 4pm today…
This is very interesting.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right that TV appearances don’t directly lead to increased album sales. (Let’s define “direct” as people buying the album within 48 hours, since the spike would be relatively easy to measure.) But the next time people are shopping for music they’ll have Hilary in mind. When they see the album in iTunes or in a record store (!!!) or in a web ad, they’ll remember liking what they saw. And there’s the “profile” thing that you raised. Obviously I don’t need to tell you how PR works–you know this stuff better than I do–but the question is even if a TV appearance has minimal impact on short-term sales, how does it impact long-term sales? I wouldn’t be surprised if long-term sales are significantly bolstered, but the problem is there’s no good way to measure it. You can’t compare long-term album sales of people who make TV appearances with the sales of people who don’t because the TV population is pre-selected for higher popularity and thus higher sales.
Another factor here is whether people buy music as impulse purchases or not. I suspect that the less impulsive people are about buying a particular good the less impact a single exposure to the product will have. So if music purchasing is relatively non-impulsive, then the TV appearance will directly convert very few people, but may at the same time push a large number of people closer to the purchasing threshold.
On the other hand, illegal filesharing is definitely often impulsive–I would be very curious to see if Big Champagne registers a spike in illegal Hahn downloads after the Tonight Show appearance.
Your point about ads for products during TV shows is very interesting, and leads me to think that the future of ad revenue for video is on the internet rather than on the TV. If I’m watching Hulu, I’m basically already “in the store” metaphorically speaking. Not necessarily true if I’m watching on a traditional TV.
First of all Amanda, I just want to say it is SO cool Hilary’s going to be on US nationwide television since she appeared on Mr. Rogers 10 years ago (Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong), and I’m really happy and excited for both you guys and myself!
I should point out that there’s still a pretty big window of opportunity for some people that are music lovers (I’m sure a lot of them watch Conan because his musical guests are usually the best ones out of the other shows save for Letterman) that will be watching tonight. There very well could be some people that get it like I did when I saw her the first time, and she’s gotten even better since that time (2004). Don’t lose faith, Amanda!
I’ll be tuning in, and btw, I ordered my copy of “Bach: Violin and Voice” yesterday! 🙂
Amanda, I love your spirit and colorful writing in your blog. With regard to this topic, when it comes to television, it’s normally all about ratings. In the heyday of Johnny Carson, he often had classical folk on, and certainly, Merv Griffin did as well. Whether or not cd sales jump due to the appearance, may be irrelevant in the long term of the cd life. It could spike, and then drop again. If any star, from any genre, has staying power, their recordings will have good numbers over the long haul. It’s always good to just keep coming out with new cds. I had a few out in 2009, another next month and a second volume of three cds later this year, and others with books. We may not make a ‘fortune’ in cd sales, but just keeping the products flowing allows people to see the name and bookings can continue. Glad Hilary had this wonderful opportunity–it is always fun to do, and it brings people pleasure–that’s what counts most.
Can I just say how much I love your graphics?
This is probably the one time you don’t mind eating your words, Amanda! 🙂
Great to see Hilary’s back catalog gets a boost as well from the sudden surge!